It definitely is too hot to ride a bicycle in Dallas, but it’s just fine riding one in Fort Worth and the rest of Tarrant County. Urban heat island or some odd global warming thing.

Similar comments were posted to this thread over at Cycle*Dallas.

For whatever reason, there has always been rivalries of one sort or another between Dallas and Fort Worth. As a rule, I do not engage in such sophomoric discussions. However, this claim seemed neither valid, nor relevant.

Approximately fifty-six kilometers separate the centers of these metropolitan neighbors. This distance seems hardly enough to represent any significant temperature gradient. Certainly not one sufficient to garner a claim such as that quoted above. I took some time to research the matter and found that there is, indeed, no significant difference in temperature between Dallas and Fort Worth. The facts show a very different reality to that which the contributor suggested.

The following chart shows a comparison between the daily high and low temperatures for Dallas and Fort Worth on the first day of each month in the first half of 2009.

January - July 2009

One thing to note is the fact that there is very little difference between the temperature ranges for either city during this period of time. Of particular interest, though, is the fact that Fort Worth has been slightly hotter in April, May and June. This doesn’t bode too well for the statement that there is any climate benefit to cycling in Fort Worth.

It could argued that 2009 represents an anomaly. For any one of a variety of reasons, there may have been atmospheric phenomena affecting the Western portion of the region more than the East. As an example, perhaps an upper-level high pressure ridge kept Fort Worth hotter and dryer that Dallas. Looking at the past several years may give some insight.

Looking at the high and low temperatures for Dallas and Fort Worth recorded on 01 July for the years 2001 through 2009, it becomes apparent the same trends have existed for at least the last eight years.

2001-2009 (01 July)

Some years Dallas has been warmer, others Fort Worth. The point is, there is very little difference, in terms of climate, between Dallas and Fort Worth. The statement that Fort Worth is somehow more amenable to commuting by bicycle is untenable and ridiculous.

The content on this page serves more than simply to rebut unsubstantiated claims. It shed additional light on the tactics used by those of lazy intellect who whip their adherents into a frenzied indoctrination through the use of sensationalist rhetoric, rather than factual data. This subject was discussed previously, but remains a serious issue. Bending the truth and taking facts out of context in order to lend credibility to an otherwise flawed premise represents a weak argument.

A timeless adage seems appropriate at this point: Honesty is the best policy.

Much to my surprise, I discovered there is no readily available source for information regarding injury rates. An inquiry to the county injury prevention center at the Dallas County Hospital District revealed there had never been a request to produce a summary such as this. That perplexed me, since, in order to come to the conclusion reached by the NBC-DFW reporter, Holly Lafon, one would have to request this information. Being the ever curious scientist, I initiated a request for the data required to derive these numbers and will post the results, should they be forthcoming, at a later date.

In the meantime, I thought I would take a look at a somewhat more critical data set: fatality rates.

The primary repository is the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) Encyclopedia of the NHTSA. FARS is a freely available resource containing data on all vehicle crashes that occur on a public roadway and involve a fatality in the US. Though far from perfect in its accounting methodology, this database is a useful tool for gaining insight into the numbers of vehicle deaths.

Methodology

Data for this analysis is derived from the FARS database. For the purposes of this overview, no attempt was made to carve out only those numbers relevant only to adult cyclists riding a bicycle for utility or transportation. Therefore, both children and fatalities falling under the somewhat ambiguous designation of “Other Cyclists” are also included. Since this practice was preserved across all surveyed data sets, not refining the focus should have little bearing on the overall point of the discussion.

The primary focus of research was the greater DFW metropolitan region. Since the majority of transportation cyclists live in either Dallas or Tarrant County, surveys were restricted to those geographic data subsets, rather than all of North Texas – which, according to NCTCOG, comprises a sixteen county region.

Much is made of the safety benefits of bike lanes and other protectionist facilities. Accordingly, surveys were also made of three other large cities in Texas: Austin, Houston and San Antonio. Austin and Houston are often cited as exemplary for their encouragement of bicycle commuting through installation of bike lanes. Though more fragmented and sometimes criticized, San Antonio also makes use of the s facilities to promote safe cycling.

Finally, fatality and injury figures were surveyed for Portland, Oregon. Though differing greatly in climate, population, population density and cultural philosophy, this city is often held up as the goal to which all other cities should aspire.

Results

The FARS data, at the time of this survey, spans the years 1994 through 2007. Fatality totals were mined for the entire state of Texas and each of the target municipalities during each of these fourteen years. The statewide total was used as the base by which to compare the numbers for each of the cities analyzed.

fatalities, Dallas

Though the total number of fatalities in the state fluctuates widely, traffic related deaths in Dallas County are relatively stable. With the exceptions of 1997 and 2004, rates hover between one and three fatal interactions per year.

fatality rates, DFW

Again, with few exceptions, the numbers of fatalities are just about equal between both Dallas and Fort Worth. A couple of anomalies exist in 1995 and 1997, when Fort Worth and Dallas, respectively, had higher than average numbers of deaths.

Despite the assertions by some Fort Worth bicycle advocates, Dallas’ neighbor to the west affords little advantage in terms of safety to transportation cyclists.

fatality rates in major Texas cities

Interesting results begin to appear when Austin, Houston and San Antonio are added to the mix. Most apparent is the high volume of deaths in Houston as compared to the other cities. With the exception of 2004 and 2006, Houston weighs in with fatality numbers equal to or exceeding all other surveyed municipalities combined.

fatality rate comparison

Despite numerous arguments from cyclists from the state capitol, the numbers do not lie: Dallas and Austin have almost identical fatality rates. Exceptions oscillate back and forth. In 2001 and 2002, Austin had significantly higher rates of cyclist deaths than Dallas. Conversely, 1997, 2003 and 2004 were bad years for North Texas. Notable is the lack of any reported fatalities for Austin in ether 1997 or 2003.

Twelve years of bike lanes in Austin has apparently made little difference when it comes to fatality rates.

fatality rate comparison

Facilities proponents like to point to Portland as a bicycling nirvana. Their liberal use of segregated facilities and experimental enhancements certainly keep them in the limelight. Though they flaunt a high bicycle ride share rate, which they attribute to their infrastructure, this has done little to lower the rate of fatalities.

Apologists like to highlight the decreasing proportion of fatalities to overall ridership numbers. However, they fail to produce anything other than anecdotal evidence to support their totals and the fatalities speak for themselves. Germane to this discussion is the fact that average fatality rates for Dallas and Portland are almost equal at 3.00 and 3.07, respectively.

Note: The totals for 2008 are unverified. Bike Portland has claimed there were zero fatalities for 2008. Meanwhile, the six deaths indicated for Dallas derive from published news items appearing in the Dallas Morning News. Confirmation will require awaiting the release of 2008 FARS data later in the year.

In terms of fatality rates, the data presented in this survey has proven there is no trend, up or down, in any of the municipal areas surveyed. Averaging the numbers from all years reveals, with the exception of Houston, there is very little difference in bicycle transportation related deaths within any of the cities. This is important to note, since many facilities advocates suggest that segregated bike lanes enhance safety. These data prove otherwise.

Discussion

A few will argue that this information compares apples to oranges in terms of refuting the NBC-DFW piece. That author cited increasing injury rates, while I compared fatality rates. One could argue that the one is reflective of the other, if, all things being equal, fatality rates are a consistent subset of overall rates of injury. However, in the absence of empirical evidence to corroborate that belief, it would be disingenuous to draw such a conclusion.

By focusing on fatality rates, this survey has succeeded in refuting one aspect of the safety argument. If one assumes mortality to be an equal gauge of safety as injury rates, then the presence or absence of bike lanes has little effect on survivability. Annual death rates attributable to bicycle/motor vehicle collisions are relatively consistent within a given region through time. Though one can certainly appreciate occasional fluctuations, the overall rates remain the same.

Facilities proponents need to understand that it does nothing to further their cause when resorting to the use of hyperbole and hearsay to justify their beliefs. If the arguments in favor of bike lanes and paternalistic legislation must rely upon innuendo then there is a flaw in the premise.

revision log:
20090619 – added a paragraph to the section on Methodology better explaining the scope of the Person Types surveyed and the reasoning behind the decision.

Van Steenburg begins his petulance with a glaring misrepresentation

Fort Worth has beaten Dallas to the punch again.

Dallas has had a functioning Bike Plan for over twenty years. With over 600 lane-miles of designated, on-street bike routes, the city is far ahead of Fort Worth in both planning and implementation.

Most, if not all, of the information upon which Van Steenburg bases his commentary originates from articles appearing in the Fort Worth Press. On 13 May, Fort Worth Weekly posted a 1400 word analysis of the “Bike Fort Worth” plan.  A little under two weeks later, the Fort Worth Business Press published a more modest 650 essay on the plan. Given that Fort Worth has stated they will not publicly release details of the plan until later this summer at the earliest, these media reports can be the only source for his information.

[Fort Worth is] starting on a six-year mission to become an official ‘Bicycle Friendly Community.’

Interesting choice of words. The term “Bicycle Friendly Community” refers to an award presented by the League of American Bicyclists to basically reward communities for the installation of bike lanes. There has been legitimate criticism of this program primarily due to its emphasis upon facilities at the expense of education and, more importantly, safety. While they do mention the Fort Worth plan as being “bike-friendly”, nowhere do either publication refer to this LAB program.

It’s time for Dallas to wake up and smell the carbon monoxide.

I guess Van Steenburg missed that day in chemistry. Carbon monoxide is an odorless and colorless gas.

The “Bike Fort Worth” plan would triple the amount of bicycle transportation, cut down on the number of bicycle-related accidents by a quarter, and earn the Bicycle Friendly Community designation from the League of American Bicyclists.

This information appears nowhere in either of the Fort Worth publications. The article in Fort Worth Weekly does mention that the “Bike Fort Worth” plan will result in triple the mileage of bike trails. Of course, it also mentions that bike routes would increase six-fold – even so remaining at less than half that of Dallas – and bike lanes would swell 60x. Finally, those are all facilities predictions. No mention is made of the predicted increase in transportation share.

The problem is that cyclists don’t feel safe [with Dallas'] approach [of having cyclists share the streets with motor vehicles], and drivers never accept bikes on “their” roads.

Interesting. That approach has served me well for nearly twenty years. I only encounter occasional instances of non-acceptance. Use of anecdotal hyperbole does little to strengthen Van Steenburg’s argument. It does serve to make him look foolish. In truth, only novice and inexperienced cyclists do not feel safe when operating as a vehicle, due largely to unenlightened exaggerations like these.

Van Steenburg then proceeds to counsel the mayor of Dallas by suggesting he appoint a committee to spearhead a renewal of the Dallas Bike Plan. Three individuals of questionable merit are submitted for consideration. To my knowledge, none are qualified.

Craig Miller is identified as a local morning radio host who apparently lectures both cyclists and motorists on proper operation on the roadways. Offering advice and having real knowledge of the issue involved are two entirely disparate subjects. Pay a visit to the website of his show and one is regaled of his qualification for “hot sports opinions”. It is not opinions which are needed – there are more than enough of those to go around; we need experience and expertise.

Next Van Steenburg offers David Feherty as a prospective member. The only qualification Feherty brings is ineptitude as a bicycle commuter. Again, Van Steenburg’s facts are muddled in his exuberance. Feherty was not “hit while riding around White Rock Lake in 2008.” He was run off the road while riding in the gutter on Park Lane, between Greenville and US75. The trouble is, he appeared on the KERA program THINK (02 October 2008) and as much as admitted he was at faul, because he was riding too far to the right in the mistaken belief he had to share a sub-standard width lane. Obviously, he is not qualified to lead such a committee.

To end the nominations, Van Steenburg trots out George W. Bush. One need look no further than the standing of our country in the eyes of the world and the state of our economy to see this is an irresponsible proposal. Though he may have acquired an enthusiasm for off-road cycling during the past decade, he has no expertise or experience with transportation cycling issues. One can only imagine the damage Bush would do to cycling in North Texas.

Besides, if Fort Worth can do it, why can’t Dallas?

Not only does this interrogative conclude his commentary, it does an excellent job of summarizing his whole argument. The “Bike Fort Worth” plan is just that. It is unfunded, unproven and currently unapproved. There is no guarantee any of it will either see the light of day, much less result in the overly optimistic increases in bicycle ride share proposed. Most importantly, Dallas has already done it. Many of us continue to prove it every day! Visitors compliment both the city and its drivers.